Wake up.. Bears!!

A strategy which I’ve adopted and rigorously followed in major of my decision is “Plan for the best and, be prepared for worst”. Even through the project management experience I have learnt that “If anything is to go wrong it will”. So the plan should be to achieve the goal, but simultaneously followed up by a backup plan or a contingent plan.

In the recent, I was having a conservative outlook towards the market as there was a lot of uncertainty regarding the direction to which Indian market were heading. I was having more of bearish feeling then bullish and that’s the reason my short positions were predominant and were hedged with less long position.

As a part of my strategy every time when market touched new highs I exited my long positions while holding the short positions in anticipation of a correction. Each time market made new ,there were no clues of market correcting; on top of that, exiting my long position increased my risk exposures, I again took few long, to hedge any upside and again the same story got repeated.

I was more of bearish because of the global events from last few days were not so encouraging, as/such as Japan continues to face the deflationary situation as the yen became stronger against the United States dollar at about 83 units, a 20 years high level, another news from Ohio which states about new policy enforcing a ban on outsourcing of all IT and back-office projects to India by government departments. Which in turn is bad news for IT companies as this decision is anticipated to have a ripple effect of other states decisions and may follow the same league.

Instead, all news got discounted by the market and the upside continues, with each passing day my sentiments are turning to be bullish now. But I’m sure that the moment I switch my positions from bearish to bullish, the market will change its direction and I will be left in utter mess.

Down trend which is known as bearish trend is far from sight, I feel that Bears has gone for the process of hibernation; but actually bears do not actually hibernate they fall into a deep sleep called torpor. Even bears living in warm climates do not undergo torpor, but like all bears, they sleep a lot. I’m sure that the bears will weak up and empower the bulls and we will see some correction in days to come.

Because; if anything is to go wrong it will.

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