How Monsoon can affect my country

Monsoon directly impacts economy because it directly impacts the agriculture (an important segment of the economy) because:

· Agriculture contributes to a one forth of the GDP.
· Agriculture provides raw materials to a fifth of the industry.
· Generate demand for industrial goods.
· Nearly 40 per cent of the manufactured consumer goods are sold in rural areas.
· 60% of the population depends on agriculture for livelihood.

A fall in agricultural production therefore leads to a fall in industrial output. The timely arrival of the monsoon and sufficient rains are thus key for India's economic growth because farmers' success depends heavily on the monsoon rains. Though new growth drivers have emerged in the Indian economy still agriculture is likely to play a very significant role in incremental growth as it did in the past. Indian Economy can absorb the shock of poor rain but it is not immune to. We need to find alternative ways to immunize.

In the time of global meltdown where we are already struggling to increase demand and consumption, and keeping fingers crossed to see a GDP between 7-8% a bad monsoon can drag the figures to 5-6%. Analysts worry that bad monsoon could be even worse for the economy this year.

Some states are already facing a drought like situation, even drinking water is getting supplied only once in ten days. When there is such a scarcity of water there is no question and point discussing water availability for the irrigation purpose and this is a bad news for agriculture and especially to the small farmers.

Some farmers have already tilled their lands and sown their seeds and if rain gets deferred, their seeds will dry up and when the rains do come, the farmer may not be left with any more seeds to cultivate.

Food production will be affected and after three years of good monsoons, a dry spell could spell disaster for a recession-hit Indian economy, with lower food production the prices of agricultural commodities will shoot up.

Indian Two-thirds of the population lives in rural areas and is, directly or indirectly, dependent on the agriculture sector. With failure of crop and lower rainfall more and more rural population will be shifting to urban base and will create a pressure on the overall system.
FMCGs, textile industries, agricultural good industries, industrial goods sell about one-third of their total products in rural areas. A fall in rural income, following a bad monsoon, can substantially change their fate.

According to the Noble report on Indian FMCGs, HUL, 50 per cent of its revenues comes from rural India, while it is 45 per cent for Dabur, 35 per cent for Colgate Palmolive, 30-35 per cent for Godrej Consumer products and 25 per cent for Marico.Falling income from bad crops means that lower demand, lower GDP and a higher draft on available government resources on account of relief measures and in this time of crises government would not be ready for another relief package for the farmers.

A bad monsoon will impact us in many ways and I would like to give a wake up call to save water, plant trees, go echo friendly and reduce carbon emission.

Sources:
http://www.valuenotes.com/
http://ibnlive.in.com/
http://www.deccanchronicle.com/
http://www.financialexpress.com/
http://www.koi-hai.com/gowrimohanakrishnan.html